ABSTRACT
@#Abstract: Objective To investigate the drug demand and related influencing factors of AIDS non-occupational post-exposure prophylaxis (nPEP) among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Wuhan, and to provide a scientific basis for the development of subsequent intervention policies for MSM. Methods With the assistance of social organizations in Wuhan, MSM was recruited by the snowball method to carry out an online questionnaire survey to collect information on demographics, AIDS-related knowledge, high-risk behaviors, and the need for nPEP medication. The χ2 test and unconditional Logistic regression were used to analyze the related factors of the demand for nPEP medication. Results A total of 308 valid subjects were included in this study, with predominantly 18-29 years old (78.57%, 242/308). The self-reported sexual orientation was mainly homosexuality (82.47%, 254/308), and the awareness rate of AIDS knowledge was high (89.29%, 275/308). Among the survey respondents, 35.06% (108/308) did not know the situation of HIV infection among MSM population in Wuhan; 55.19% (170/308) had two or more same-sex sexual partners in the last six months; 90.91% (280/308) had heard of nPEP before participating in this survey. After passing nPEP and informing the protective effect of nPEP, 59.42% (183/308) of them needed nPEP. After HIV exposure, 73.38% (226/308) were willing to spend money to buy nPEP drugs, and 88.64% (273/308) were willing to take nPEP drugs because of the known side effects. Logistic regression analysis showed that in the last six months, the needs for taking nPEP medication in those who had 2 or more same-sex sexual partners (OR=2.121, 95%CI: 1.329-3.386) and who had received peer education (OR=1.740, 95%CI: 1.088-2.781) were higher than those of those who had a same-sex sexual partner in the last six months and who had not received peer education. Conclusions The MSM population in Wuhan has a great demand for nPEP drugs, and peer education is an important way to carry out nPEP publicity and promotion. At the same time, we should continue to strengthen warning publicity and education and behavioral intervention to reduce MSM risky sexual behaviors and reduce new HIV infections.
ABSTRACT
Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred many times and caused serious health burden in China since 2008.Application of modem information technology to prediction and early response can be helpful for efficient HFMD prevention and control.A seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for time series analysis was designed in this study.Eighty-four-month (from January 2009 to December 2015) retrospective data obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Prevention and Control were subjected to ARIMA modeling.The coefficient of determination (R2),normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Q-test P value were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of constructed models.Subsequently,the best-fitted ARIMA model was applied to predict the expected incidence of HFMD from January 2016 to December 2016.The best-fitted seasonal ARIMA model was identified as (1,0,1)(0,1,1)12,with the largest coefficient of determination (R2=0.743) and lowest normalized BIC (BIC=3.645) value.The residuals of the model also showed non-significant autocorrelations (PBox-Ljung (Q)=0.299).The predictions by the optimum ARIMA model adequately captured the pattern in the data and exhibited two peaks of activity over the forecast interval,including a major peak during April to June,and again a light peak for September to November.The ARIMA model proposed in this study can forecast HFMD incidence trend effectively,which could provide useful support for future HFMD prevention and control in the study area.Besides,further observations should be added continually into the modeling data set,and parameters of the models should be adjusted accordingly.